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Version 182

3 April 2020

This is Version 182 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist. It was last updated on 3 April 2020.

LOCATION CHANGES

None

RISK LEVEL CHANGES

NIGERIA Very High 3.2 from High 3.1: Reflecting an increase in risks to aviation cargo due to reports of individuals gaining access to runways at key airports,
 highlighting the risk of exploitation of security lapses by terrorist groups. Additionally, the likely presence of well-resourced pirate gangs using motherships in
 the Gulf of Guinea raises risks of boarding for vessels using Nigerian ports.

RISK SCORE CHANGES

BRAZIL (BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos) Very High
 3.3 from Very High 3.4: Reflecting a gradual reduction in the number of cargo theft incidents over the past 12 months due to increased police patrols and better
 intelligence; government lockdowns in response to Covid-19 in several states are also likely to lead to a reduction in criminal gang activity.

CAMEROON High 2.8 from High 2.7: Reflecting an increased risk to aviation from small arms fire targeting aircraft during take-off and landing at airports in the
 southwest and northwest of the country, after a state-owned civilian passenger aircraft was fired at on approach to Bamenda airport in December 2019.

CONGO - BRAZZAVILLE Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 2.0: Reflecting a reduced risk to road and rail cargo in the Pool region, following a reduction in militia activity
 in recent months.

CONGO - KINSHASA (aka DRC) High 2.9 from High 2.8: Reflecting an increased risk of attacks against ground cargo in the Katanga region, and aviation at Lubumbashi
 airport, following the escape of the former Bakata Katanga militia leader amid coordinated raids.

LIBYA Severe 5.6 from Severe 5.5: Reflecting an increased risk to marine cargo in the Tripolitania region, following the LNA’s attack on Tripoli port, and Turkey’s
 use of Mitiga port making it a more likely target for future attacks.

NORTH KOREA Elevated 1.8 from Elevated 1.9: Reflecting a reduction in risks to aviation from military accidents or escalation due to the postponement of the annual
 joint US-South Korea military exercises.

RUSSIA (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.) Elevated 1.8 from Elevated 2.1: Reflecting a
 significant reduction in the intensity of fighting as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, which is likely to last for at least 3-6 months. 

RUSSIA (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory) Elevated 1.8 from Elevated 2.1: Reflecting a gradual reduction in terrorism over the last few
 months, combined with likely restrictions on movement due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which are likely to last at least 3-6 months.

SOUTH KOREA Elevated 1.8 from Elevated 1.9: Reflecting a reduction in risks to aviation from military accidents or escalation due to the postponement of the annual
 joint US-South Korea military exercises.

SOUTH SUDAN Very High 3.4 from Very High 3.7: Reflecting a reduced risk to ground cargo, following the formation of a unity government and a ceasefire between the
 government and other militant groups. 

SUDAN High 2.4 from High 2.5: Reflecting a reduced risk to aviation because peace negotiations between the government and armed groups reduce the likelihood of
 militant attacks against airports. (The risk for ground cargo remains largely unaffected because of higher risk of cargo theft as a result of increasing price of
 food and other goods due to the Covid-19 pandemic). 

UKRAINE (Ground: Donbass conflict zone; Marine: Black Sea coast and Sea of Azov within territorial waters) High 2.7 from High 3.0: Reflecting a significant
 reduction in the intensity of fighting as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, which is likely to last for at least 3-6 months.

YEMEN Severe 5.5 from Severe 5.6: Reflecting a decrease in risks to ground cargo in Houthi-controlled territory, due to a reduced frequency of Saudi-led coalition
 airstrikes in recent months.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.4  YesYesYes  
Argentina(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.3      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Burundi(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Colombia(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Egypt(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.4     Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(Very high) 3.4     Yes 
India(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
India (Eastern and Central India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa, Maharashtra)(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(High) 2.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Israel(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Italy(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Kenya(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Low) .4     Yes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7  YesYesYes  
Mexico(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.9      Yes
Niger(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Nigeria(Very high) 3.2YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 1.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Occupied Palestinian Territory(Severe) 4.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Pakistan(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Persian or Arabian Gulf and adjacent waters including the Gulf of Oman west of Longitude 58°E(Very high) 3.4YesYes     
Peru(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Qatar(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Russia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 1.8YesYes  Yes  
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 1.8  YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.7YesYesYesYesYes  
South Korea(Elevated) 1.8YesYesYesYesYes  
South Sudan(Very high) 3.4  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Turkey(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine (Ground: Donbass conflict zone; Marine: Black Sea coast and Sea of Azov within territorial waters)(High) 2.7YesYes  Yes  
United Arab Emirates(High) 2.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.5YesYesYesYesYes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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