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Version 177

1 November 2019

This is Version 177 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 1 November 2019.

LOCATION CHANGES

None

RISK LEVEL CHANGES

ITALY Elevated 1.6 from Moderate 1.5: Reflecting an increase in the risk of disruption to ground cargo from increasingly frequent public transport strikes, which
 have been driven by trade union demands for higher salaries and improved working conditions.

UKRAINE (Ground: Donbass conflict zone; Marine: Black Sea coast and Sea of Azov within territorial waters): High 3.0 from Very High 3.2: Reflecting reduced risks
 to ground and marine cargo from increased communication between Russia and Ukraine on the Donbass conflict resolution, which reduces war risks in the Donetsk and
 Luhansk regions of Ukraine.

RISK SCORE CHANGES

COTE D’IVOIRE (Ivory Coast) Elevated 2.2 from Elevated 2.3: Reflecting a reduction in risks to ground cargo from bandits along major roads, due to increased
 security forces operations as part of a steady government focus on improving journey times and safety.

ISRAEL High 2.9 from High 2.8: Reflecting increased risks of collateral damage to aviation and ground cargo near the borders with Lebanon and Gaza, following
 Hizbullah’s threat to target Israeli surveillance aircraft operating over southern Lebanon.

NORTH KOREA Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.0: Reflecting an increased risk to marine vessels in or near North Korean territorial waters due to an increase in North
 Korean weapons testing, including firing artillery into its waters and beyond. North Korea no longer regularly issues NOTAMs/no-fly, no-sail notices before testing
.

RUSSIA (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters): Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.3: Reflecting
 reduced risks to ground and marine cargo from increased communication between Russia and Ukraine on the Donbass conflict resolution, which reduces war risks in the
 Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. 

RUSSIA (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory): Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.3: Reflecting a declining risk to ground cargo as a result of a
 reduced terrorist cell activity in the North Caucasus.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7  YesYesYes  
Argentina(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.4      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Burundi(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Colombia(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Egypt(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(Elevated) 2.1     Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(Very high) 3.3     Yes 
India(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Israel(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Italy(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Kenya(High) 2.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Low) .4     Yes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7  YesYesYes  
Mexico(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.9      Yes
Niger(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Nigeria(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Occupied Palestinian Territory(Severe) 4.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Pakistan(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Persian or Arabian Gulf and adjacent waters including the Gulf of Oman west of Longitude 58°E(High) 3.1YesYes     
Peru(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Qatar(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Russia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.1YesYes  Yes  
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.1  YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.7YesYesYesYesYes  
South Korea(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
South Sudan(Very high) 3.7  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Turkey(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine (Ground: Donbass conflict zone; Marine: Black Sea coast and Sea of Azov within territorial waters)(High) 3.0YesYes  Yes  
United Arab Emirates(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.7YesYesYesYesYes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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