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Version 176

4 October 2019

This is Version 176 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 4 October 2019.

LOCATION CHANGES

The following territories were added/removed from the JCC Cargo Watchlist as agreed at the committee’s last meeting on 6 September 2019.
Added: India (Elevated 2.0), Italy (Moderate 1.5), Turkey (Elevated 2.2)
Removed: Algeria, Azerbaijan, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Jordan, Madagascar, Mauritania, Nepal, Philippines, Zimbabwe 

RISK LEVEL CHANGES

None

RISK SCORE CHANGES

ARGENTINA Elevated 1.7 from Elevated 1.8: Reflecting a reduction in aviation risk due to the lack of recent incidents of aircraft seizure by the Macri government,
 and there being no mention of aerial interdiction as part of the ongoing counter-narcotics drive which involves strengthening of custom controls at land borders. 

CAMEROON High 2.7 from High 2.6: Reflecting an increased risk to marine cargo from piracy in the Douala anchorage, as indicated by two incidents of armed kidnap
 and property theft in September.

GULF OF ADEN (sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N)
 Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.2: The absence of recorded piracy incidents in recent months represents a downwards trend and reduced risk of piracy in the Gulf of
 Aden.

IRAQ Very High 3.4 from Very High 3.3: Reflecting an increased risk of collateral damage to aviation as a result of increasing Israeli airstrikes on suspected
 shipments of Iranian weapons to Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) at airports in southern Iraq, and likely retaliation by PMUs against US forces located at Baghdad
 International Airport. 

SAUDI ARABIA High 2.9 from High 2.7: Reflecting increased risk to aviation cargo and infrastructure due to the high risk of further attacks by Iran and its allies
 against Saudi energy and aviation assets using armed UAVs, ballistic and cruise missiles.

SUDAN High 2.5 from High 2.6: Incoming government’s negotiations with non-state armed groups reduces risk to ground cargo, and its statement welcoming NGOs
 indicates a reduced likelihood of strikes affecting the aviation sector. 

SYRIA Severe 4.6 from Severe 4.7: Reflecting a decreasing risk to marine cargo in government-held areas as a result of the Syrian government’s advances in Idlib
 province, which is pushing the opposition further out of range of Syrian ports.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Elevated 2.3 from Elevated 2.2: Reflecting increased risk to aviation cargo and airports, which are likely to be among infrastructure targets
 within the Yemen-based Houthi's so-called 'airport-for-airport' campaign, using armed UAVs.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7  YesYesYes  
Argentina(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.4      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Burundi(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Colombia(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Egypt(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(Elevated) 2.1     Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(Very high) 3.3     Yes 
India(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Israel(High) 2.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Italy(Moderate) 1.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Kenya(High) 2.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Low) .4     Yes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7  YesYesYes  
Mexico(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.9      Yes
Niger(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Nigeria(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Occupied Palestinian Territory(Severe) 4.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Pakistan(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Persian or Arabian Gulf and adjacent waters including the Gulf of Oman west of Longitude 58°E(High) 3.1YesYes     
Peru(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Qatar(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Russia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.3YesYes  Yes  
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.3  YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.7YesYesYesYesYes  
South Korea(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
South Sudan(Very high) 3.7  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Turkey(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine (Ground: Donbass conflict zone; Marine: Black Sea coast and Sea of Azov within territorial waters)(Very high) 3.2YesYes  Yes  
United Arab Emirates(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.7YesYesYesYesYes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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