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Version 185

3 July 2020

This is Version 185 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist. It was last updated on 3 July 2020.

LOCATION CHANGES

None

RISK LEVEL CHANGES

None

RISK SCORE CHANGES

BANGLADESH Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.0: Increased risk to aviation from protests at airports in response to challenges associated with repatriation during the
 COVID-19 pandemic.

BURKINA FASO High 2.7 from High 2.6: Increased risk to ground cargo from more frequent IED attacks, ambushes on cargo trucks, and extortion at roadblocks driven by
 rivalry between jihadist groups.

CHAD High 3.1 from High 3.0: Increased risk of collateral damage to aviation assets on the ground and ambush of ground cargo as a result of growing activity of
 Boko Haram around Lake Chad and intensification of northern insurgencies.

IRAQ Very High 3.9 from Very High 3.8: Increasing risk of attacks on ground cargo because of growing Islamic State activity intent on exploiting economic
 grievances and boosting support.

LEBANON Very High 3.4 from Very High 3.5: Overall reduced risk to marine and ground cargo due to lower assessed likelihood of war between Israel and Hizbullah (25%
 probability in the 12-month outlook). Growing risk of cargo disruption from protesters blocking roads, but protesters unlikely to breach port perimeters.

MALI Very High 3.8 from Very High 3.7: Increased risk to aviation and ground cargo because of rivalry between jihadist groups driving higher frequency of IED
 attacks, ambushed and extortion at roadblocks. 

NIGER High 2.9 from High 2.7: Increased risk to aviation in Diffa, Tillaberi and Tahoua, and ground cargo particularly in Tillaberi, Tahoua and Diffa because of
 rivalry between jihadist groups driving higher frequency of IED attacks, ambushed and extortion at roadblocks.

NORTH KOREA Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 1.8: Increased risk to marine assets from artillery fire across the Northern Limit Line in the West Sea, due to North
 Korea’s strategy of manufacturing a sense of “crisis” on the Korean Peninsula to coerce the US into re-engagement.

OCCUPIED PALESTINIAN TERRITORY Severe 4.5 from Severe 4.8: Reduced risk to ground cargo due to lower likelihood of Hamas risking a war with Israel amid economic
 pressure and COVID-19 pandemic.

RUSSIA (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.) Elevated 1.7 from Elevated 1.8: Reduced risk to
 marine assets in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov due to lower number of incidents involving Ukrainian and Russian vessels in recent months. The number of such
 incidents is likely to fall further under Ukrainian President Zelenskyi’s administration.

SAUDI ARABIA High 3.1 from High 3.0: Increased risk to aviation at Saudi airports in southern provinces from growing number of Houthi attacks using weaponised
 UAVs, ballistic or cruise missiles.

UKRAINE High 2.8 from High 2.9: Reduced risk to marine assets in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov due to lower number of incidents involving Ukrainian and Russian
 vessels in recent months. The number of such incidents is likely to fall further under Ukrainian President Zelenskyi’s administration.

UKRAINE (Ground: Donbass conflict zone; Marine: Black Sea coast and Sea of Azov within territorial waters) High 2.6 from High 2.7: Reduced risk to marine assets in
 the Black Sea and Sea of Azov due to lower number of incidents involving Ukrainian and Russian vessels in recent months. The number of such incidents is likely to
 fall further under Ukrainian President Zelenskyi’s administration.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.4  YesYesYes  
Argentina(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.3      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Burundi(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Colombia(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Egypt(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.4     Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(Very high) 3.4     Yes 
India(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
India (Eastern and Central India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa, Maharashtra)(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Israel(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Italy(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Kenya(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Malay Peninsula (Cargo theft from oil tankers in the Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Low) .4     Yes 
Malay Peninsula (Piracy in the Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Elevated) 1.9     Yes 
Mali(Very high) 3.8  YesYesYes  
Mexico(High) 2.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.9      Yes
Niger(High) 2.9  YesYesYes  
Nigeria(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Occupied Palestinian Territory(Severe) 4.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Pakistan(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Persian or Arabian Gulf and adjacent waters including the Gulf of Oman west of Longitude 58°E(Very high) 3.7YesYes     
Peru(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Qatar(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Russia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 1.7YesYes  Yes  
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 1.8  YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.7YesYesYesYesYes  
South Korea(Elevated) 1.8YesYesYesYesYes  
South Sudan(Very high) 3.4  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Turkey(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 2.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine (Ground: Donbass conflict zone; Marine: Black Sea coast and Sea of Azov within territorial waters)(High) 2.6YesYes  Yes  
United Arab Emirates(High) 2.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.5YesYesYesYesYes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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