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Version 185

3 July 2020

This is Version 185 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist. It was last updated on 3 July 2020.

LOCATION CHANGES

None

RISK LEVEL CHANGES

None

RISK SCORE CHANGES

BANGLADESH Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.0: Increased risk to aviation from protests at airports in response to challenges associated with repatriation during the
 COVID-19 pandemic.

BURKINA FASO High 2.7 from High 2.6: Increased risk to ground cargo from more frequent IED attacks, ambushes on cargo trucks, and extortion at roadblocks driven by
 rivalry between jihadist groups.

CHAD High 3.1 from High 3.0: Increased risk of collateral damage to aviation assets on the ground and ambush of ground cargo as a result of growing activity of
 Boko Haram around Lake Chad and intensification of northern insurgencies.

IRAQ Very High 3.9 from Very High 3.8: Increasing risk of attacks on ground cargo because of growing Islamic State activity intent on exploiting economic
 grievances and boosting support.

LEBANON Very High 3.4 from Very High 3.5: Overall reduced risk to marine and ground cargo due to lower assessed likelihood of war between Israel and Hizbullah (25%
 probability in the 12-month outlook). Growing risk of cargo disruption from protesters blocking roads, but protesters unlikely to breach port perimeters.

MALI Very High 3.8 from Very High 3.7: Increased risk to aviation and ground cargo because of rivalry between jihadist groups driving higher frequency of IED
 attacks, ambushed and extortion at roadblocks. 

NIGER High 2.9 from High 2.7: Increased risk to aviation in Diffa, Tillaberi and Tahoua, and ground cargo particularly in Tillaberi, Tahoua and Diffa because of
 rivalry between jihadist groups driving higher frequency of IED attacks, ambushed and extortion at roadblocks.

NORTH KOREA Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 1.8: Increased risk to marine assets from artillery fire across the Northern Limit Line in the West Sea, due to North
 Korea’s strategy of manufacturing a sense of “crisis” on the Korean Peninsula to coerce the US into re-engagement.

OCCUPIED PALESTINIAN TERRITORY Severe 4.5 from Severe 4.8: Reduced risk to ground cargo due to lower likelihood of Hamas risking a war with Israel amid economic
 pressure and COVID-19 pandemic.

RUSSIA (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.) Elevated 1.7 from Elevated 1.8: Reduced risk to
 marine assets in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov due to lower number of incidents involving Ukrainian and Russian vessels in recent months. The number of such
 incidents is likely to fall further under Ukrainian President Zelenskyi’s administration.

SAUDI ARABIA High 3.1 from High 3.0: Increased risk to aviation at Saudi airports in southern provinces from growing number of Houthi attacks using weaponised
 UAVs, ballistic or cruise missiles.

UKRAINE High 2.8 from High 2.9: Reduced risk to marine assets in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov due to lower number of incidents involving Ukrainian and Russian
 vessels in recent months. The number of such incidents is likely to fall further under Ukrainian President Zelenskyi’s administration.

UKRAINE (Ground: Donbass conflict zone; Marine: Black Sea coast and Sea of Azov within territorial waters) High 2.6 from High 2.7: Reduced risk to marine assets in
 the Black Sea and Sea of Azov due to lower number of incidents involving Ukrainian and Russian vessels in recent months. The number of such incidents is likely to
 fall further under Ukrainian President Zelenskyi’s administration.